A Study of the Impact on Soybean Potential under Climate Change

Abstract

Soybean is one of the important oil crops in China. However the supply and demand of soybean is at stake currently. The demand keeps increasing and the self-sufficient keeps decreasing. More seriously, climate change will bring obvious impact on the growth and development, planting pattern, planting area, potential production of soybean, etc. Therefore, assessment of the impact of soybean production under climate change is quite essential for improving the self-sufficient and guaranteeing the safety of oil crops. This study will extend and improve the parameters of soybean in agricultural ecology zone (AEZ) based on the 22 soybean observation stations in the major planting area from 1981-2011 to achieve China-AEZ. And then simulate the impact of climate change on soybean. The results show that: the simulation of China-AEZ has been improved a lot. In 2050s, the total soybean potential will increased by 7123 thousand tons. The total suitable planting area will increased by 3589 thousand hectare. But the average potential will decreased by 55 kg/ha. From the spatial scale, the soybean potential will increase in Northeast China and Northwest China. Soybean potential will decrease in the other area of China under climate change.