The Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment Based on the Diffusion Mechanism

Abstract

At present, the study on meteorological disasters risk is mostly for single hazard-affected body. With the economic and social development in recent years, meteorological disaster risk is appearing more "system" characteristics. Meteorological disasters not only impact on direct hazard-affected bodies, but also on other bodies through the direct victims. In general, the influence of the direct victims transmits to other bodies in some diffusion ways, which is rather different from the disaster chain, which we well known. In this paper, we propose the concept of diffusion of meteorological disaster risk, study the diffusion mechanism of the meteorological disaster risk, make a simulation system of risk diffusion analysis, and provide the analysis method and the calculation model for more reasonably and more comprehensively understanding the diffusion of meteorological disaster risk. Taking blizzard of North China in early winter 2009 as an example, we construct a risk diffusion network of the low temperature and blizzard disaster, systemically analyze what would be affected by the disaster, and give the scene expression of risk with prompt function, Which is useful for government and relevant departments to make the decisions in dealing with meteorological disaster risk.