A Fuzzy Systematic Approach to Construction Risk Analysis

Abstract

This article emphasizes the need for a fuzzy systematic structural approach to the risk assessment of construction projects and introduces the processes required to form a hierarchical systematic structure based on fuzzy logic using the Fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (Fuzzy DEMATEL) method. In this research, for the first time, the fuzzy DEMATEL method has been successfully applied to the risk assessment of the Persian Gulf Bridge megaproject, connecting Qeshm Island, located in the high risk Strait of Hormuz, to the mainland of Iran, and produced logical results. In this case study, forty-five major risks, classified in ten groups of risks, were found, analyzed, and structured within a systematic hierarchical model. The final causal hierarchical structure of risks has been briefly analyzed and the risks have been prioritized with respect to their values of prominence in the model and their influence on the structure of risk factors. A result of this analysis confirms that country risks, including the state economy and multinational sanctions against the country are the most important risks affecting the project. Another result shows that the most destructive risk can arise from the planning and budgeting of the Sea Bridge project.