The Research of a Hail Risk Evaluation under Imperfect Information

Abstract

Based on the situation of the global warming, hail disasters will maybe cause the higher risk of loss in the future. The author established a risk evaluation model of hail disasters in terms of the combination of probabilistic and physical methods. Moreover, a nonlinear finite element analysis software (ANSYS/LS-DYNA ) is utilized to simulate the case that hails dash on the steel body and glass material, whose result was one of the parameters of the evaluation model. Finally, the article carried out a simulation using the hail risk evaluation model and the Monte Carlo random simulation method in terms of the historical statistical data in Tianjin. The result shows that this model can effectively assess hail disaster risk under the situation of insufficient data and information on hail disasters.