Assessment Research of Bijie Drought Risk Based On Cloud Model

Abstract

This paper chooses 8 cities and counties of Bijie area as the research target. With the research foundation of natural disaster risk theory and drought risk formation principle, we start from dangerousness, exposure , vulnerability and the ability to prevent disaster to filter out 23 indexes range from social status, economy, weather and geology to construct the assessment system of Bijie drought risk. To solve the uncertainty of quantitative description for drought risk assessment index and the judge of assessment result, cloud model and entropy weight method are implemented to decide how much percentage the city or county belong on each index. In the end, we use the weight of 23 indexes to get the drought risk level each city or county belongs to. The result reveal that Weining has the highest risk while Bijie, Qianxi, Zhijin, Hezhang have higher risk of drought occurence and Dafang and Jinsha have normal risk, Nayong has lower risk. This research aims to help governments at all levels to prevent drought and provide decision basis to reduce drought loss.